When a player hits a $1 million top prize on a $20 scratch-off, the moment is real — but the state lottery's own published payout tables show the average $20 ticket returns roughly 74 cents on the dollar. Here is how to read those tables yourself, and what the math actually says before you buy.
Finding which games give you the scratch-off best odds starts with state payout tables — mandatory disclosures every lottery publishes and most players never open.
What Is Expected Value — and How Does the Formula Apply to Scratch-Offs?
Expected value (EV) is the average outcome of a repeated decision, weighted by the probability of each result. Applied to a lottery ticket:
EV = Σ (Prize Amount × Probability of Winning That Prize) − Ticket Price
Every prize tier on a scratch-off contributes one term to that sum. A $20 ticket with a 1-in-4 chance of winning $5 contributes $5 × 0.25 = $1.25 to the EV. Add all tiers together, subtract the $20 cost, and you get the net expected value — almost always a negative number.
That negative figure is not a flaw. State lotteries are structured so revenue funds prize pools, state programs, and operations. The EV calculation tells you the average cost of playing, not whether any individual ticket wins.
How Do State Lottery Payout Tables Work — and Where Can You Find Them?
Every state lottery is required to publish prize structures for each active game. A standard payout table lists:
- Each prize tier (e.g., $5, $50, $500, $1,000,000)
- The overall odds of winning that specific tier
- Total prizes printed and the number still unclaimed
That remaining-prizes count is updated periodically — some states refresh daily, others weekly. Texas, California, Florida, and New York all publish detailed prize-remaining tables on their official lottery websites. Search for [your state] lottery remaining prizes to reach the right page directly.
The overall odds printed on a ticket package summarize the full prize structure, but only the full table lets you do tier-by-tier EV math. Overall odds include every prize tier, including free-ticket wins; top-prize odds are listed separately.
What Do Published Scratch-Off Payout Rates Show by State and Price Point?
State lotteries report aggregate return-to-player (RTP) rates in annual reports and game prospectuses. The pattern across states is consistent: higher-price tickets carry higher published RTP rates. Premium-tier games allocate a larger share of revenue to top prizes and maintain more mid-tier tiers, which lifts the aggregate RTP.
The table below shows approximate published RTP ranges by price point, derived from publicly available state lottery disclosures. Individual game rates vary — always verify at your state lottery's official prize table page before making any purchasing decision.
| Ticket Price | Approximate Published RTP Range |
|---|---|
| $1 | 60 – 65% |
| $2 | 64 – 68% |
| $5 | 67 – 72% |
| $10 | 70 – 74% |
| $20 | 72 – 76% |
| $30 – $50 | 74 – 80% |
Approximate ranges derived from state lottery annual reports and prize-structure disclosures. Rates vary by game; verify at your state lottery's official website.
At the Texas $20 price point, the published rate lands around 74% — consistent with the figure above. A $1 game in the same state typically returns 10–15 percentage points less in aggregate, reflecting a structurally thinner prize pool.
Does a $20 Ticket Actually Give Better Odds Than a $1 Ticket?
Better RTP, yes. Better jackpot odds, not necessarily.
RTP measures the aggregate share of revenue returned as prizes across all tiers combined. A $20 ticket's higher RTP is driven primarily by a larger mid-tier prize pool — the $20 to $500 win range — not by better jackpot probability. Top-prize odds on higher-denomination games can actually be worse in raw probability than a $1 game's jackpot odds.
You spend more per ticket, gain a better average return from smaller wins, and still face long odds at the top tier. There is no price point where a scratch-off becomes a positive-EV product.
Every top-prize win illustrates the asymmetry: one player hits the rare tail of the distribution. The RTP table describes the average across millions of tickets sold, not any individual result. Lotteries are random — no purchasing strategy changes the underlying probabilities.
How Do Scratch-Offs Compare to Draw Games on an EV Basis?
Draw games — Powerball, Mega Millions, state daily numbers — publish their odds structures publicly, which makes a direct EV comparison possible.
Powerball jackpot odds are 1 in 292.2 million on a $2 ticket (per Powerball.com). At any realistic jackpot size, the cash-value lump sum and federal tax withholding (typically 37% at the top bracket, per IRS Topic 419) substantially reduce the effective jackpot payout. Lower-tier prizes add a small fraction of EV. The net expected value per ticket remains deeply negative across nearly all jackpot scenarios.
Scratch-offs distribute prizes across many tiers with more predictable short-odds wins. The aggregate RTP — typically 65–76% depending on price point — lands materially above what draw games deliver at common jackpot sizes.
The honest framing for both: lottery products are entertainment with a known average cost per ticket. State payout tables let you understand that cost precisely before you buy, rather than relying on the summary odds statement on the package.
What Is the Expected Value of a Scratch-Off Ticket?
What is the expected value of a $20 scratch-off?
A $20 scratch-off returns roughly 72–76 cents per dollar spent based on state-published payout tables, producing an average net loss of approximately $4.80–$5.60 per ticket. This is a population-level average — individual results range from a total loss to rare large prizes. No ticket selection strategy improves the EV; lotteries are random.
Which scratch-off ticket has the best odds?
By return-to-player rate, higher-price tickets offer the best odds: $20–$50 games typically publish RTP of 74–80%, compared to 60–65% for $1 games, based on state lottery annual reports. That advantage is concentrated in mid-tier wins, not jackpot probability. All scratch-off games have negative expected value — "best odds" means the least-unfavorable average return.
Where can I find my state's scratch-off payout table?
Every state lottery publishes prize-structure tables on its official website, usually under a "remaining prizes" or "scratch-off games" section. Tables list each prize tier, the odds for that tier, and unclaimed prizes remaining. Update frequency varies — some states refresh daily. Search "[your state] lottery remaining prizes" to navigate directly.
Do scratch-offs have better expected value than Powerball?
At common jackpot sizes, scratch-offs (65–76% RTP) typically deliver better aggregate returns than Powerball after cash-value conversion and tax withholding reduce the effective jackpot payout. Both products carry negative expected value by design. Scratch-offs distribute prizes across more tiers with shorter odds; Powerball offers a larger theoretical maximum at far longer odds.
What does return-to-player mean on a scratch-off ticket?
Return-to-player (RTP) is the share of total revenue a lottery game pays back as prizes across all tickets in a print run. A 74% RTP means the game returns $74 in prizes for every $100 spent. It is a population-level figure — individual tickets win or lose in full, not as a percentage of face value.
Jackpot Teller's free data tool aggregates published prize-remaining tables so you can see which active scratch-off games in your state still have top prizes in play — without clicking through each game one at a time. Explore it free at https://jackpotteller.com/w/data?utm_source=organic_search&utm_medium=seo. Signup is free; no payment required to use the tool.